THE DUEL WITH
DIESEL EMISSIONS
GOOD PROGRAMS
The EPA and private organizations, such as NACFE (North American Council for Freight Efficiency), are working alongside truck manufacturers and operators to reduce diesel emissions, provide higher efficiencies, and increase electrification for freight hauling. Their aim is to drastically reduce emissions thereby decreasing carbon footprint in these vehicles for each mile of freight transportation service. Pivotal dates for required goals have been set by government agencies and the OEM’s themselves, to obtain these progressive steps, thus increasing the pressure for innovation.
THE ELEPHANT
However, if Coal Fired Generating Plants up their output and emissions to supply power for vehicle batteries (they are 33% efficient), considering an 11% loss for grid distribution and at least 13% for charging system losses, then generating electricity with 50% efficient Fuel engines at the point of use will have a 93% greater effect on efficiency and reducing emissions than simply charging the batteries by plugging them in. In the words of Bill Combs, VP at Penske: “The Elephant in the room with zero tailpipe emissions is that the energy is created somewhere that potentially burns fossil fuels”.
Now introducing Compound Electric Hybrids in long haul Heavy Freight Trucks, could not only generate electricity much more efficiently for their own use but also enable ‘Electric Only Mode’ while traveling. This feature allows for zero emissions in smog-affected areas, helping to alleviate smog-related sickness and greatly contributing to the reduction of their carbon footprint whenever implemented.
COVID-19
COVID-19 shutdowns proved that clean air is beautiful and healthy in congested cities that had not seen consistent clear blue skies for decades. This was observed in cities like Los Angeles & New Delhi. The impact on public health and welfare in cities using designated “zero emission sectors” (areas of no combustion engine use) to improve air quality in their smog-afflicted urban centers holds great promise!
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Additionally, with Compound Electric Hybrids, zero emissions are possible at all ports, loading docks, weigh stations, and other high-density locations. Furthermore, this hybrid eliminates unnecessary idling in traffic jams, truck yards, and rest stops during overnight stays in sleeper cabs (known by truckers as hoteling).
BEV NICHE
Current solutions of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEVs) in heavy freight trucks are primarily focused on a market niche of regional short haul trips, covering distances of 250 miles or less per day (with the need to return to the yard for charging). This niche currently represents only 0.7% of truck sales for medium through heavy duty trucks (class 4 to class 8), and the charger along with electrical service upgrade must be purchased separately. From 2017 to 2022 a total of 300 units of class 7 & 8 trucks have been deployed in the USA out of an over 4 million truck fleet. Unfortunately, there are currently no zero-emissions options available for extended long-haul freight trucks that cover distances which could be 1,500 to 2,000 miles or more. BEV’s rely on travel locations with available charging ports to park at, and currently lack alternative solutions. Unlike Diesel, businesses cannot store the necessary electricity at the truck yard to compensate for electrical blackouts, peak usage cut-offs, rolling brownouts, or other infrastructure issues resulting from higher overall demand and recurring spikes in usage. Route planning for BEV’s is carefully determined based on the availability of the next open time at a charging station port. These barriers, along with infrastructure limitations, battery costs, and battery operating temperature restrictions, among other factors, have led to significant deployment constraints for BEV’s.
GIGAWATTS
In 2021, the US transportation sector consumed 46.82 billion gallons of Diesel fuel. Various concerned organizations, truck manufactures, and government agencies have set often-touted goals for future dates to reduce Diesel fuel consumption. The universal goal is to achieve ‘net zero emissions’ is by 2050, with a typical 50% reduction by 2040. However, when converting gallons of Diesel to electricity, this 50% reduction alone would require an additional 416,000 Gigawatts of electric power production by 2040, even after accounting for higher efficiency in electric motors. This alone for transportation represents a 10.4% increase in total US electrical production. To put this in perspective, it would take approximately 20 more Grand Coulee Dams or 90 Hoover Dams (along with the necessary distribution grid and reservoirs).
This projected increase in giga-wattage by 2040 does not include the additional electricity demand from other electric cars entering the market, as well the growing non-transportation needs for electricity in commercial, residential, and industrial sectors. And, currently those other sectors already account for most of the annual 4+ trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity produced in the USA. So, to meet the future increased demand, well over 40 Grand Coulee Dams could be needed!
An alternative and achievable approach to reducing 50% of transportation diesel consumption would involve utilizing hybrid and other emerging technologies to increase the national average fuel efficiency of these trucks from 6.4 MPG to 13MPG by 2040, or potentially even earlier. This can be accomplished without the need for constructing additional dams or infrastructure!
The current development of the “Super Truck” is aimed at this issue. And the NACFE Run on Less study, coupled with technology upgrades, has shown average results of 10 MPG. If these upgrades were to include a Compound Electric Hybrid, it could be fine-tuned to achieve the goal of 13+ MPG (Even 16MPG). This would lead to one of the most significant immediate benefits, which is cutting current fuel costs in half for trucks. All of this can be achieved without the need to change or add expensive infrastructure. Therefore, it is easy to see high potential for a substantial return on investment in the development and implementation of new technology such as the Compound Electric Hybrid for long-haul heavy truck freight transportation.
DISPOSING DILEMMA
Operating a Long-Haul semi-truck solely on batteries with current technology would require 8.3 tons of battery packs for a 500-mile trip to the next charging station, without any reserve. In contrast, running a Compound Electric Hybrid truck for a much longer 2,800-mile trip with zero emissions in regions of high impact, as listed above, would only require a 1.3-ton battery pack. Furthermore, the Hybrid does not depend on charging station with wait times, although it can still be plugged in for charging when desired. Aside from substantial battery costs, there is significant concern regarding the environmental impact associated with mining, processing, manufacturing, and disposing of these batteries, as revealed through Life Cycle Assessment studies. These batteries will only last (at most) 2 years in continual long-haul truck freight applications, covering the usual 100,000+ miles per year. However, in a Compound Electric Hybrid, the use can be tailored to extend the battery life cycle out 4 to 5 years.
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So, now comparing the use of Compound Electric Hybrid in 2 million semi-trucks (about half of the current fleet) instead of using Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), it would save 7.6 million tons of battery manufacture and disposal every year from just the need to swap out batteries! This would have a tremendous positive environmental impact and lead to significant economic gains. Additionally, it would reduce the need for a more extensive infrastructure grid, which would require additional “Fuel Burning Power Plants” to be brought online (with their own environmental impact).
The Compound Electric Hybrid approach combined with other advancements (Like Bio-Fuel) would certainly surpass the cradle-to-grave environmental and economic efficiency impact that BEV’s strive for. This is particularly true when considering that BEV’s still depend on fossil fuels for generating sufficient electricity.
TAXES & GASES
As more electric vehicles hit the road, governments will seek ways to recover tax revenue lost from reduced fossil fuel sales, which funds infrastructure and government oversight for roads and bridges. Currently, existing Class 8 Semi-trucks have an average 6.4 mpg. Based on average per gallon diesel gas tax rates in the USA, this translates to 10 cents of tax revenue per mile. For comparison, the average electric Heavy Truck consumes 2.2 kWh of electricity per mile. And considering the median electricity rates for businesses at 12.8 cents per kWh, additional taxes to replace the lost diesel gas tax revenue per mile would be approximately 4.5 cents per kWh (10 / 2.2). This represents a significant 35% increase (4.5 / 12.8) in cost per kWh, which will be an unexpected jump in rates. These tax & electric rate increases will also need to contribute funding new infrastructure required to support the additional billions of kWhs needed. Moreover, along with the historical increases to supply a growing demand in all non-transportation electrical use, as well as any peak use charges, all these factors could result in significantly higher electricity costs for every customer. It is important to note that demand for other fuels may not necessarily decrease as energy consumption shifts over towards electricity, since fossil fuels are still used to generate electricity.
Another significant issue is the ‘close proximity’ of greenhouse gas emission (GHG) percentages between the transportation sector and the electricity generation sector. Currently, they differ by only 3 percentage points. With the focus on reducing vehicle-related GHG emissions by transitioning to electricity, which requires fuel for generating more electricity (while all other electricity usage categories also increase), it is predicted that the electricity generation sector will soon surpass the transportation sector as the leading emitter of greenhouse gasses - again. (As in years past it held that number one spot.) This shift can only be avoided if renewable sources make substantial progress for electricity generating in the future. There has been a significant increase in wind turbine installations for the electricity generation sector over the last two decades.
DOUBLING UP
The current projection indicates that demand for road freight is expected to double by 2050, with the total revenue increasing 50% by 2032. However, Electric Grid Infrastructure and distribution are struggling to meet the projected needs for vehicle charging, even for the current demand, let alone doubling it. This is without taking into account the doubling or even tripling of electricity demands resulting from advancements in non-transportation sectors. (i.e. King County in Washington state is now incorporating codes allowing only electricity to be used for heating in new home construction.) Building upon the previous example of the Grand Coulee Dam, it appears now that meeting this growing demand for 2050 could necessitate the construction of over 80 additional Grand Coulee Dams.
Urgent action is needed to explore additional solutions and innovative options. The Compound Electric Hybrid presented here is one such option. Sustainable Fuels like renewable diesel and biodiesel are also gaining traction as highly viable solutions, bridging the gap until the advent of a truly renewable sourced, fully electric era. By leveraging sustainable fuels, high-efficiency engines, and Compound Electric Hybrids, significant progress can be made in meeting transportation demands and working towards neutralizing greenhouse gas emissions.
AMERICAN TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) published a crucial paper in December 2022 titled "Challenges for US Electric Vehicle Fleets" (link), which is highly recommended for those seeking a comprehensive understanding of the opportunities and obstacles related to battery electric heavy-duty trucks. This paper thoroughly examines the batteries, electric grid infrastructure, and charging issues that have been briefly mentioned previously.
According to the study, fully electrifying the entire US heavy trucking fleet would necessitate a 40% increase in current electricity production. Moreover, the batteries would require materials that, in some cases, account for over 7.4 years of current global production. And, for the US fleet alone, these materials could consume up to 64.4% of global reserves for certain strategic resources. It's important to note that these figures do not account for used battery replacements or the production of batteries for other electric vehicles. (Or for the doubling of road freight by 2050, as also mentioned previously.)
Additionally, the ATRI study sheds light on the overarching challenge of integrating truck charging with truck parking, all while accommodating the mandatory rest stops required for drivers as mandated by Federal Hours-of-Service work regulations. This threefold interconnected conundrum highlights the need for more chargers than there are parking spaces, at an estimated cost exceeding 35 billion dollars. (Meanwhile, the current truck parking crisis is yet to be solved.) The study emphasizes that this existing dilemma, combined with the potential frustration of more frequent and lengthier charging times, results in shorter trip durations before requiring another stop for parking and recharging. This situation is comparable to the experience of refueling more frequently in long waiting lines, causing major supply chain delays for customers and income loss for drivers. Easily making the Covid-19 supply chain crisis pale in comparison.
A summary of the ATRI findings is available at the end of the bibliography in the downloadable version of this paper, along with all references. To access it, please select below and click the provided link to download.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
It is evident that the term ZEV (Zero Emissions Vehicle) can be misleading in public discourse.
For as long as the generating of electricity or hydrogen contributes to a carbon footprint, the simple ZEV acronym doesn’t tell the complete story. However, the EPA’s formula "Carbon footprint grams per mile / per ton of freight” (g/ton-mile), used for regulatory impact assessment, can be easily adapted to provide a more comprehensive and up-to-date metric. If, and most importantly, this metric encompasses all carbon emissions from upstream and downstream sources, accounting for the lifecycle (cradle to grave) impact of all components, energy, minerals, and chemicals involved, along with their respective distribution and process related GHG effects. (Battery materials, manufacture & disposal is one example.). This concept is clearly illustrated in the paper at ATRI link, speifically on pages 17 to 29. A summary of this paper can also be found at this link. Additionally, these papers highlight significant technological advantages beyond BEV’s.
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Merely labeling a vehicle ZEV will overlook significant carbon footprint issues if all these other factors are not considered. Unfortunately the EPA does not include all of this in their analysis.
The “all-inclusive carbon g/ton-mile” metric thus emerges as the most suitable measure for comparing GHG emissions in any freight transportation application or style. The transportation of freight and its multifaceted impact is far more complex than can be determined solely by examining the tailpipe emissions. By utilizing this more informative measure, well-informed decisions can be made regarding the necessary steps to achieve the lowest possible carbon footprint for each ton of freight transported across every mile.